ML Analysis — STONESPRINGS HOSPITAL CENTER
CCN 490145 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
48
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health16/25
RCM Upside5/25
Market Position17/20
Demand Defensibility6/15
Operational Efficiency5/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
- Volume growth opportunity from low occupancy
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-0.8%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 15.1%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-29.1%, 27.5%]. P60 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 747835.991 | +0.1120 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 881252.925 | -0.0974 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | 0.044 | +0.0666 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 202086.831 | -0.0223 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Occupancy | 0.229 | -0.0168 | Lower Occupancy decreases predicted margin |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
53.1%
Distress Risk
$4.9M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
20.3%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P70. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
VA distress rate: 29.6%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.229 | +0.275 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.020 | -0.068 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.220 | -0.066 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 881252.925 | +0.041 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.196 | -0.022 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 107.000 | -0.006 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.9M
Current margin: 15.1%
Projected margin: 20.3%
Grade: D
Comps: 52
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.229 | 0.783 | 55.4% | $3.7M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.220 | 0.331 | 11.1% | $1.2M | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 26.3 | [25.0, 75.0] | P36 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |