ML Analysis — CARILION TAZEWELL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL
CCN 490117 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
48
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health4/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position17/20
Demand Defensibility8/15
Operational Efficiency0/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-6.2%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -32.9%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-34.4%, 22.1%]. P46 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 800423.609 | -0.1087 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1063403.304 | +0.0731 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | 0.044 | +0.0666 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.135 | -0.0288 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 23.000 | +0.0196 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 39%Turnaround possible (39%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
Under-Performing / Distre
Archetype
49.9%
Distress Risk
$2.4M
RCM Opportunity
B
Opportunity Grade
-19.8%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Under-Performing / Distressed
Percentile within cluster: P5. Deeply negative margins signal severe distress. Evaluate asset-level acquisition at 4-6x normalized EBITDA.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| HOLY FAMILY MEMORIAL INC | WI | 58 |
| MIDDLESBORO ARH | KY | 46 |
| ATRIUM HEALTH NAVICENT BALDWIN | GA | 86 |
| BON SECOURS COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | NY | 98 |
| ADVANCED SPECIALTY HOSP. OF TOLEDO | OH | 40 |
| COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTER BRANCH | MI | 75 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
VA distress rate: 29.6%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.392 | +0.124 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.218 | -0.067 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.022 | -0.067 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 800423.609 | +0.046 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 23.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.357 | +0.005 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $2.4M
Current margin: -32.9%
Projected margin: -19.8%
Grade: B
Comps: 24
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.392 | 0.676 | 28.5% | $1.9M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.218 | 0.465 | 24.8% | $534K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 34.3 | [25.0, 75.0] | P78 | Average — predicted days in ar is near the median. |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.0% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P4 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |