ML Analysis — CLINCH VALLEY MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 490060 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
53
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health15/25
RCM Upside11/25
Market Position17/20
Demand Defensibility7/15
Operational Efficiency3/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
- Volume growth opportunity from low occupancy
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-1.6%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 5.1%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-29.8%, 26.8%]. P58 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 776432.854 | +0.1085 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 817908.503 | -0.1063 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | 0.044 | +0.0666 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 173138.683 | -0.0232 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.124 | +0.0223 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
53.5%
Distress Risk
$5.6M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
9.6%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P63. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
VA distress rate: 29.6%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.212 | +0.291 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.176 | -0.086 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.013 | -0.076 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 817908.503 | +0.045 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.283 | -0.008 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 151.000 | +0.000 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $5.6M
Current margin: 5.1%
Projected margin: 9.6%
Grade: D
Comps: 46
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.212 | 0.785 | 57.3% | $3.8M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.176 | 0.302 | 12.6% | $1.8M | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.704 | 0.706 | 0.2% | $37K | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 26.7 | [25.0, 75.0] | P38 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |