ML Analysis — CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
CCN 490019 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Buy — solid fundamentals with identifiable value creation levers. Proceed to detailed diligence.
64
/ 100 (B)
Financial Health17/25
RCM Upside10/25
Market Position17/20
Demand Defensibility10/15
Operational Efficiency9/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
6.0%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 9.3%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-22.3%, 34.3%]. P76 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 2198726.386 | +0.0865 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | 0.044 | +0.0666 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Expense/Bed | 1993673.471 | -0.0415 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 70.000 | +0.0123 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.172 | +0.0085 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
48.5%
Distress Risk
$4.7M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
12.4%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P0. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
VA distress rate: 29.6%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Per Bed | 2198726.386 | -0.037 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.488 | +0.034 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.304 | -0.029 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 70.000 | -0.011 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.094 | +0.005 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.340 | +0.002 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.7M
Current margin: 9.3%
Projected margin: 12.4%
Grade: D
Comps: 56
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.566 | 0.709 | 14.3% | $2.1M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.488 | 0.783 | 29.5% | $1.9M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.304 | 0.336 | 3.2% | $580K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 26.4 | [25.0, 75.0] | P36 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |