ML Analysis — UNIVERSITY OF VIRGINIA MEDICAL CENTE
CCN 490009 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Buy — solid fundamentals with identifiable value creation levers. Proceed to detailed diligence.
74
/ 100 (B)
Financial Health20/25
RCM Upside15/25
Market Position17/20
Demand Defensibility13/15
Operational Efficiency9/15
Entry Multiple: 11.0x – 13.0x
Est. MOIC: 2.8x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
9.0%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 1.1%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-19.3%, 37.3%]. P81 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 3564676.119 | +0.2771 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 3527088.832 | -0.2304 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 665.000 | -0.0806 | Higher Bed Count decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | 0.044 | +0.0666 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 2633124.071 | +0.0584 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m |
Large Academic Medical Ce
Archetype
41.8%
Distress Risk
$15.0M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
1.7%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Large Academic Medical Center
Percentile within cluster: P5. Large medical centers trade at premium multiples (12-14x). Limited PE value creation but strong cash flow.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| NORTH CAROLINA BAPTIST HOSPITAL | NC | 800 |
| HACKENSACK UNIVERSITY MEDICAL CENTER | NJ | 779 |
| TEMPLE UNIVERSITY HOSPITAL | PA | 761 |
| VCU HEALTH SYSTEM MCV HOSPITAL | VA | 842 |
| UH CLEVELAND MEDICAL CENTER | OH | 660 |
| FROEDTERT MEM. LUTHERAN HOSPT. | WI | 731 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
VA distress rate: 29.6%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.739 | -0.198 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 3564676.119 | -0.117 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 665.000 | +0.069 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.308 | -0.027 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.073 | -0.016 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.238 | -0.015 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $15.0M
Current margin: 1.1%
Projected margin: 1.7%
Grade: D
Comps: 12
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.308 | 0.358 | 5.0% | $13.8M | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.739 | 0.869 | 13.1% | $863K | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.689 | 0.712 | 2.3% | $341K | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |