ML Analysis — PORTER HOSPITAL
CCN 471307 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
59
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health5/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position14/20
Demand Defensibility9/15
Operational Efficiency10/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-26.9%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -30.6%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-55.2%, 1.4%]. P14 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 4081678.080 | -0.2987 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 3124639.640 | +0.2157 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.266 | -0.1635 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 1904574.869 | +0.0342 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.219 | -0.0268 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 13%Low turnaround probability (13%). Structural disadvantages in Expense/Bed and Revenue/Bed.
Under-Performing / Distre
Archetype
46.2%
Distress Risk
$4.7M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
-24.6%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Under-Performing / Distressed
Percentile within cluster: P80. Deeply negative margins signal severe distress. Evaluate asset-level acquisition at 4-6x normalized EBITDA.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| HOLY FAMILY MEMORIAL INC | WI | 58 |
| MIDDLESBORO ARH | KY | 46 |
| ATRIUM HEALTH NAVICENT BALDWIN | GA | 86 |
| BON SECOURS COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | NY | 98 |
| ADVANCED SPECIALTY HOSP. OF TOLEDO | OH | 40 |
| COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTER BRANCH | MI | 75 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
VT distress rate: 86.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Per Bed | 3124639.640 | -0.091 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.610 | -0.078 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.112 | +0.023 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.455 | +0.022 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 25.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.402 | +0.015 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.7M
Current margin: -30.6%
Projected margin: -24.6%
Grade: C
Comps: 2513
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.433 | 0.632 | 19.9% | $3.0M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.402 | 0.591 | 18.9% | $1.7M | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 31.7 | [25.0, 75.0] | P68 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |