ML Analysis — HIGHLAND RIDGE HOSPITAL
CCN 464015 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
43
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health5/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position6/20
Demand Defensibility8/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-0.9%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -13.2%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-29.1%, 27.5%]. P60 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 202587.687 | -0.1922 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 229316.000 | +0.1759 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | 0.080 | +0.0933 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.395 | -0.0555 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 134318.411 | -0.0245 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
Turnaround: 48%Turnaround possible (48%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
nan%
Distress Risk
$36K
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-12.9%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
UT distress rate: 25.0%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.663 | -0.128 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.088 | -0.041 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 202587.687 | +0.081 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.433 | +0.028 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 67.000 | -0.011 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $36K
Current margin: -13.2%
Projected margin: -12.9%
Grade: D
Comps: 24
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.433 | 0.455 | 2.3% | $36K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |