ML Analysis — WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL
CCN 462003 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
54
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health5/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position19/20
Demand Defensibility7/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-3.1%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -15.4%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-31.4%, 25.2%]. P54 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 537694.712 | -0.1454 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 620754.848 | +0.1277 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | 0.080 | +0.0933 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Medicaid % | 0.414 | -0.0394 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 301643.363 | -0.0190 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
Turnaround: 45%Turnaround possible (45%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
57.9%
Distress Risk
$5.6M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
2.1%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P0. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
| NORTH SUBURBAN MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 115 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
UT distress rate: 25.0%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.414 | +0.325 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 537694.712 | +0.061 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.452 | +0.037 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.121 | -0.035 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.561 | -0.033 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 59.000 | -0.012 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $5.6M
Current margin: -15.4%
Projected margin: 2.1%
Grade: A
Comps: 24
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.464 | 0.829 | 36.5% | $5.5M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.561 | 0.569 | 0.8% | $51K | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.452 | 0.464 | 1.1% | $41K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 27.9 | [25.0, 75.0] | P43 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |