ML Analysis — BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL
CCN 461310 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
54
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health7/25
RCM Upside17/25
Market Position16/20
Demand Defensibility8/15
Operational Efficiency6/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-2.5%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -2.3%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-30.8%, 25.8%]. P56 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State Peer Margin | 0.080 | +0.0933 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Log(Beds) | 2.398 | -0.0459 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.106 | +0.0274 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Medicaid % | 0.307 | -0.0264 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 11.000 | +0.0215 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 46%Turnaround possible (46%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on State Peer Margin.
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
58.4%
Distress Risk
$6.3M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
35.9%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P58. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
UT distress rate: 25.0%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.307 | +0.218 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.364 | +0.150 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 11.000 | -0.018 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.400 | +0.013 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1508391.273 | +0.004 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.363 | -0.002 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $6.3M
Current margin: -2.3%
Projected margin: 35.9%
Grade: A
Comps: 10
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.292 | 0.684 | 39.2% | $5.9M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.363 | 0.603 | 23.9% | $465K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 34.1 | [25.0, 75.0] | P77 | Average — predicted days in ar is near the median. |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.2% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P4 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |