ML Analysis — KANE COUNTY HOSPITAL
CCN 461309 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
51
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health5/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position17/20
Demand Defensibility5/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-2.9%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -15.6%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-31.1%, 25.4%]. P55 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 536007.600 | -0.1456 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 619700.320 | +0.1278 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | 0.080 | +0.0933 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Medicaid % | 0.596 | -0.0614 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.892 | +0.0587 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 45%Turnaround possible (45%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
65.2%
Distress Risk
$5.9M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
28.8%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P40. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
UT distress rate: 25.0%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.596 | +0.507 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.892 | +0.233 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.615 | -0.083 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 536007.600 | +0.062 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.043 | -0.049 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 25.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $5.9M
Current margin: -15.6%
Projected margin: 28.8%
Grade: A
Comps: 28
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.361 | 0.757 | 39.6% | $5.9M | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 27.2 | [25.0, 75.0] | P40 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |