ML Analysis — DAVIS HOSPITAL & MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 460041 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
59
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health19/25
RCM Upside5/25
Market Position19/20
Demand Defensibility6/15
Operational Efficiency11/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
- Volume growth opportunity from low occupancy
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
5.0%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 29.1%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-23.3%, 33.3%]. P74 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State Peer Margin | 0.080 | +0.0933 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Expense/Bed | 952134.640 | +0.0869 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1343671.189 | -0.0329 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.281 | -0.0227 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| Log(Beds) | 5.165 | +0.0184 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
54.3%
Distress Risk
$5.0M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
31.2%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P83. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
UT distress rate: 25.0%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.283 | +0.225 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.171 | -0.027 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.072 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1343671.189 | +0.014 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 175.000 | +0.004 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.371 | +0.001 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $5.0M
Current margin: 29.1%
Projected margin: 31.2%
Grade: D
Comps: 15
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.283 | 0.656 | 37.3% | $2.5M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.371 | 0.422 | 5.1% | $1.4M | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.756 | 0.829 | 7.3% | $1.1M | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |