ML Analysis — BEAR RIVER VALLEY HOSPITAL
CCN 460039 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
54
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health13/25
RCM Upside9/25
Market Position19/20
Demand Defensibility2/15
Operational Efficiency11/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-1.8%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 9.5%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-30.1%, 26.5%]. P57 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State Peer Margin | 0.080 | +0.0933 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Revenue/Bed | 2134994.125 | +0.0776 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.383 | -0.0521 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| Log(Beds) | 2.773 | -0.0372 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1931879.188 | -0.0338 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
57.4%
Distress Risk
$2.2M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
16.0%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P81. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
UT distress rate: 25.0%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.163 | +0.336 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.507 | +0.062 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2134994.125 | -0.033 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.149 | -0.031 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 16.000 | -0.018 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.097 | +0.008 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $2.2M
Current margin: 9.5%
Projected margin: 16.0%
Grade: C
Comps: 18
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.163 | 0.383 | 22.0% | $1.4M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.507 | 0.700 | 19.3% | $770K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 29.7 | [25.0, 75.0] | P56 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |