ML Analysis — ASHLEY REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 460030 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
54
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health16/25
RCM Upside5/25
Market Position18/20
Demand Defensibility4/15
Operational Efficiency11/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
0.8%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 15.6%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-27.5%, 29.1%]. P64 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State Peer Margin | 0.080 | +0.0933 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Expense/Bed | 1395643.436 | +0.0322 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Medicaid % | 0.321 | -0.0281 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin | |
| Occupancy | 0.205 | -0.0182 | Lower Occupancy decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 338564.007 | -0.0177 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
61.7%
Distress Risk
$10.2M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
31.4%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P72. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
UT distress rate: 25.0%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.205 | +0.298 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.321 | +0.232 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 39.000 | -0.015 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.267 | -0.010 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1654465.718 | -0.004 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.378 | +0.004 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $10.2M
Current margin: 15.6%
Projected margin: 31.4%
Grade: A
Comps: 24
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.412 | 0.778 | 36.6% | $5.5M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.205 | 0.564 | 35.9% | $2.4M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.378 | 0.685 | 30.6% | $2.3M | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 28.9 | [25.0, 75.0] | P50 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |