ML Analysis — ST GEORGE REGIONAL HOSPITAL
CCN 460021 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Strong Buy — pursue aggressively. High-quality asset with defensible revenue and RCM upside.
81
/ 100 (A)
Financial Health25/25
RCM Upside7/25
Market Position19/20
Demand Defensibility15/15
Operational Efficiency15/15
Entry Multiple: 11.0x – 13.0x
Est. MOIC: 2.8x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
17.6%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 12.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-10.7%, 45.9%]. P91 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 3086426.519 | +0.2104 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 2715694.441 | -0.1304 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | 0.080 | +0.0933 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 2188569.153 | +0.0436 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m | |
| Log(Beds) | 5.545 | +0.0272 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
43.2%
Distress Risk
$2.5M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
12.3%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P46. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| CLARA MAASS MEDICAL CENTER | NJ | 259 |
| PRESENCE SAINTS MARY & ELIZABETH MED | IL | 266 |
| ADVENTIST HEALTH BAKERSFIELD | CA | 254 |
| BRISTOL REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER | TN | 244 |
| HOLSTON VALLEY HOSP & MED CTR | TN | 286 |
| SPRINGFIELD REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER | OH | 230 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
UT distress rate: 25.0%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.709 | -0.171 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 3086426.520 | -0.089 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.414 | +0.020 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.072 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 256.000 | +0.014 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.307 | -0.003 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $2.5M
Current margin: 12.0%
Projected margin: 12.3%
Grade: D
Comps: 10
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.621 | 0.785 | 16.4% | $2.5M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.709 | 0.721 | 1.2% | $77K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |