ML Analysis — U OF U HOSPITALS & CLINICS
CCN 460009 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Strong Buy — pursue aggressively. High-quality asset with defensible revenue and RCM upside.
77
/ 100 (A)
Financial Health17/25
RCM Upside18/25
Market Position19/20
Demand Defensibility13/15
Operational Efficiency10/15
Entry Multiple: 11.0x – 13.0x
Est. MOIC: 2.8x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
15.9%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -1.8%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-12.4%, 44.2%]. P90 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 4409549.654 | +0.3951 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 4486918.443 | -0.3486 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 3763089.596 | +0.0959 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m | |
| State Peer Margin | 0.080 | +0.0933 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Bed Count | 616.000 | -0.0729 | Higher Bed Count decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 76%Model predicts 76% probability of positive margin. Key drivers: Revenue/Bed and Expense/Bed.
Large Academic Medical Ce
Archetype
41.0%
Distress Risk
$1.6M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-1.7%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Large Academic Medical Center
Percentile within cluster: P34. Large medical centers trade at premium multiples (12-14x). Limited PE value creation but strong cash flow.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| NORTH CAROLINA BAPTIST HOSPITAL | NC | 800 |
| HACKENSACK UNIVERSITY MEDICAL CENTER | NJ | 779 |
| TEMPLE UNIVERSITY HOSPITAL | PA | 761 |
| VCU HEALTH SYSTEM MCV HOSPITAL | VA | 842 |
| UH CLEVELAND MEDICAL CENTER | OH | 660 |
| FROEDTERT MEM. LUTHERAN HOSPT. | WI | 731 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
UT distress rate: 25.0%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.853 | -0.305 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 4409549.654 | -0.167 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 616.000 | +0.063 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.150 | +0.061 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.447 | +0.035 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.201 | -0.022 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $1.6M
Current margin: -1.8%
Projected margin: -1.7%
Grade: D
Comps: 686
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.650 | 0.758 | 10.8% | $1.6M | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |