ML Analysis — ROCK PRAIRIE BEHAVIORAL HEALTH
CCN 454125 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
43
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health4/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position10/20
Demand Defensibility7/15
Operational Efficiency2/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-11.9%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -37.8%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-40.2%, 16.4%]. P33 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 60817.958 | -0.2120 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 83834.167 | +0.1938 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Medicaid % | 0.591 | -0.0607 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.086 | +0.0331 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.006 | +0.0290 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi |
Turnaround: 30%Turnaround possible (30%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
61.2%
Distress Risk
$9.0M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
166.6%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P65. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
TX distress rate: 42.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.591 | +0.502 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 60817.958 | +0.090 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.115 | -0.036 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.293 | -0.034 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.558 | -0.030 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 72.000 | -0.010 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $9.0M
Current margin: -37.8%
Projected margin: 166.6%
Grade: A
Comps: 219
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.294 | 0.798 | 50.4% | $7.6M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.558 | 0.754 | 19.6% | $1.3M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.293 | 0.483 | 19.0% | $97K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 32.9 | [25.0, 75.0] | P73 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.4% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P7 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |