ML Analysis — LONESTAR BEHAVIORAL HEALTH
CCN 454118 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
42
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health9/25
RCM Upside13/25
Market Position9/20
Demand Defensibility6/15
Operational Efficiency5/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-10.1%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 3.7%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-38.4%, 18.2%]. P37 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 331561.875 | -0.1742 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 319299.583 | +0.1648 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.485 | -0.0815 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 1.000 | +0.0708 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.006 | +0.0290 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi |
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
63.9%
Distress Risk
$4.2M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
56.7%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P35. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
TX distress rate: 42.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net To Gross Ratio | 1.000 | +0.281 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.285 | +0.196 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.439 | +0.080 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 331561.875 | +0.074 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 24.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.230 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.2M
Current margin: 3.7%
Projected margin: 56.7%
Grade: A
Comps: 246
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.485 | 0.717 | 23.2% | $3.5M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.439 | 0.551 | 11.2% | $739K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |