ML Analysis — AUSTIN STATE HOSPITAL
CCN 454084 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
40
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health5/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position2/20
Demand Defensibility10/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-10.1%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -45.1%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-38.4%, 18.2%]. P37 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 187286.213 | -0.1943 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 271710.649 | +0.1707 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.508 | -0.0882 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.006 | +0.0290 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Log(Beds) | 5.591 | +0.0283 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 33%Turnaround possible (33%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
nan%
Distress Risk
$948K
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-43.2%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
TX distress rate: 42.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.613 | -0.081 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.002 | -0.056 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 187286.213 | +0.082 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.509 | +0.063 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 268.000 | +0.016 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $948K
Current margin: -45.1%
Projected margin: -43.2%
Grade: D
Comps: 136
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.613 | 0.757 | 14.4% | $948K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |