ML Analysis — CHILDRENS MEDICAL CENTER OF DALLAS
CCN 453302 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Buy — solid fundamentals with identifiable value creation levers. Proceed to detailed diligence.
72
/ 100 (B)
Financial Health24/25
RCM Upside8/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility11/15
Operational Efficiency15/15
Entry Multiple: 11.0x – 13.0x
Est. MOIC: 2.8x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
11.7%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 10.3%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-16.6%, 40.0%]. P84 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 4133706.416 | +0.3566 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 3708608.695 | -0.2527 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 2792373.433 | +0.0637 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.388 | -0.0536 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| Log(Beds) | 5.932 | +0.0362 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin |
Large Academic Medical Ce
Archetype
42.5%
Distress Risk
$698K
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
10.3%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Large Academic Medical Center
Percentile within cluster: P75. Large medical centers trade at premium multiples (12-14x). Limited PE value creation but strong cash flow.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| NORTH CAROLINA BAPTIST HOSPITAL | NC | 800 |
| HACKENSACK UNIVERSITY MEDICAL CENTER | NJ | 779 |
| TEMPLE UNIVERSITY HOSPITAL | PA | 761 |
| VCU HEALTH SYSTEM MCV HOSPITAL | VA | 842 |
| UH CLEVELAND MEDICAL CENTER | OH | 660 |
| FROEDTERT MEM. LUTHERAN HOSPT. | WI | 731 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
TX distress rate: 42.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Per Bed | 4133706.416 | -0.151 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.676 | -0.140 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.005 | -0.055 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 377.000 | +0.031 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.434 | +0.029 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.102 | +0.013 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $698K
Current margin: 10.3%
Projected margin: 10.3%
Grade: D
Comps: 104
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.676 | 0.781 | 10.6% | $698K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |