ML Analysis — CHRISTUS ST MICHAEL REHAB HOSPITAL
CCN 453065 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
40
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health9/25
RCM Upside14/25
Market Position10/20
Demand Defensibility5/15
Operational Efficiency3/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-3.1%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 4.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-31.4%, 25.2%]. P54 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 487421.240 | -0.1524 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 467858.820 | +0.1465 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.074 | +0.0367 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.006 | +0.0290 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 265904.979 | -0.0201 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
49.2%
Distress Risk
$9.0M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
41.0%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P69. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
TX distress rate: 42.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.705 | +0.065 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 487421.240 | +0.064 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.028 | -0.060 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.277 | -0.041 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.546 | -0.019 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 50.000 | -0.013 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $9.0M
Current margin: 4.0%
Projected margin: 41.0%
Grade: A
Comps: 275
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.267 | 0.750 | 48.3% | $7.2M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.546 | 0.713 | 16.8% | $1.1M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.277 | 0.510 | 23.3% | $665K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 29.8 | [25.0, 75.0] | P57 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |