ML Analysis — ASCENSION SETON EDGAR B DAVIS
CCN 451371 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
50
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health12/25
RCM Upside11/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility5/15
Operational Efficiency7/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-5.4%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 5.1%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-33.7%, 22.9%]. P48 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State Peer Margin | -0.006 | +0.0290 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.135 | -0.0288 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1448839.522 | +0.0257 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 23.000 | +0.0196 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 470349.415 | -0.0134 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
50.5%
Distress Risk
$2.5M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
12.4%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P45. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
TX distress rate: 42.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.308 | +0.202 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.003 | -0.086 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.294 | -0.033 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.210 | -0.020 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 23.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1527498.391 | +0.003 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $2.5M
Current margin: 5.1%
Projected margin: 12.4%
Grade: C
Comps: 235
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.308 | 0.539 | 23.2% | $1.5M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.294 | 0.539 | 24.5% | $1.0M | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 30.7 | [25.0, 75.0] | P63 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |