ML Analysis — KELL WEST REGIONAL HOSPITAL
CCN 450827 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
44
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health6/25
RCM Upside17/25
Market Position11/20
Demand Defensibility6/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-8.8%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -3.9%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-37.1%, 19.5%]. P40 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 842376.780 | -0.1029 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 875307.415 | +0.0963 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.006 | +0.0290 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 96705.868 | -0.0258 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Occupancy | 0.115 | -0.0233 | Lower Occupancy decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 35%Turnaround possible (35%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
58.3%
Distress Risk
$7.8M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
18.7%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P49. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
TX distress rate: 42.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.115 | +0.381 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.020 | -0.068 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 842376.780 | +0.044 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.466 | +0.024 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 41.000 | -0.014 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.363 | -0.003 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $7.8M
Current margin: -3.9%
Projected margin: 18.7%
Grade: A
Comps: 278
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.115 | 0.706 | 59.1% | $3.9M | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.513 | 0.735 | 22.2% | $3.3M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.363 | 0.504 | 14.1% | $570K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 30.7 | [25.0, 75.0] | P63 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |