ML Analysis — ROLLING PLAINS MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
CCN 450055 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
46
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health3/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility5/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-14.1%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -50.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-42.4%, 14.1%]. P29 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 734676.256 | -0.1179 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1219674.103 | +0.0539 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.006 | +0.0290 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 220583.514 | -0.0216 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.276 | -0.0214 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m |
Turnaround: 27%Low turnaround probability (27%). Structural disadvantages in Revenue/Bed and Expense/Bed.
Under-Performing / Distre
Archetype
53.4%
Distress Risk
$3.1M
RCM Opportunity
B
Opportunity Grade
-39.1%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Under-Performing / Distressed
Percentile within cluster: P38. Deeply negative margins signal severe distress. Evaluate asset-level acquisition at 4-6x normalized EBITDA.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| HOLY FAMILY MEMORIAL INC | WI | 58 |
| MIDDLESBORO ARH | KY | 46 |
| ATRIUM HEALTH NAVICENT BALDWIN | GA | 86 |
| BON SECOURS COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | NY | 98 |
| ADVANCED SPECIALTY HOSP. OF TOLEDO | OH | 40 |
| COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTER BRANCH | MI | 75 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
TX distress rate: 42.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.300 | +0.209 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.016 | -0.072 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 734676.256 | +0.050 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 39.000 | -0.015 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.252 | -0.013 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.377 | +0.004 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $3.1M
Current margin: -50.0%
Projected margin: -39.1%
Grade: B
Comps: 281
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.300 | 0.696 | 39.6% | $2.6M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.377 | 0.512 | 13.5% | $454K | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.732 | 0.737 | 0.5% | $71K | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 34.1 | [25.0, 75.0] | P77 | Average — predicted days in ar is near the median. |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.1% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P4 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |