ML Analysis — TRISTAR HENDERSONVILLE MEDICAL CENTE
CCN 440194 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
57
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health19/25
RCM Upside5/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility11/15
Operational Efficiency7/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
10.1%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 41.5%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-18.2%, 38.4%]. P82 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 946817.054 | +0.0875 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.089 | +0.0322 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.006 | +0.0291 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.123 | -0.0276 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 4.860 | +0.0113 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
40.9%
Distress Risk
$5.1M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
43.9%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P90. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
TN distress rate: 43.2%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.713 | -0.174 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.123 | -0.110 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.057 | -0.031 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.213 | -0.019 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 129.000 | -0.003 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1617259.915 | -0.002 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $5.1M
Current margin: 41.5%
Projected margin: 43.9%
Grade: D
Comps: 43
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.123 | 0.291 | 16.9% | $4.1M | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.713 | 0.800 | 8.7% | $575K | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.729 | 0.756 | 2.7% | $403K | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |