ML Analysis — METRO NASHVILLE GENERAL HOSPITAL
CCN 440111 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
58
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health19/25
RCM Upside5/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility6/15
Operational Efficiency13/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
- Volume growth opportunity from low occupancy
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
6.4%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 48.9%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-21.9%, 34.7%]. P76 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 2520703.325 | +0.1314 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.607 | -0.1165 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 1.000 | +0.0708 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1287974.614 | +0.0455 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Medicaid % | 0.353 | -0.0319 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin |
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
65.7%
Distress Risk
$5.9M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
50.9%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P93. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
TN distress rate: 43.2%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net To Gross Ratio | 1.000 | +0.281 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.353 | +0.264 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.267 | +0.240 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2520703.325 | -0.056 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.041 | -0.049 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 114.000 | -0.005 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $5.9M
Current margin: 48.9%
Projected margin: 50.9%
Grade: D
Comps: 45
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.267 | 0.807 | 54.0% | $3.6M | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.606 | 0.759 | 15.3% | $2.3M | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |