ML Analysis — ROANE COUNTY MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 440031 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
43
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health8/25
RCM Upside14/25
Market Position8/20
Demand Defensibility9/15
Operational Efficiency3/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-3.2%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 2.4%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-31.5%, 25.1%]. P54 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 831205.673 | +0.1018 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 851719.865 | -0.1016 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.006 | +0.0291 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Bed Count | 52.000 | +0.0151 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 510942.170 | -0.0120 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
nan%
Distress Risk
$2.1M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
7.2%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
TN distress rate: 43.2%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.600 | -0.069 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.249 | -0.013 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 851719.865 | +0.043 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.300 | -0.030 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 52.000 | -0.013 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $2.1M
Current margin: 2.4%
Projected margin: 7.2%
Grade: D
Comps: 59
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.600 | 0.820 | 22.0% | $1.5M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.300 | 0.432 | 13.1% | $681K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |