ML Analysis — UNICOI COUNTY HOSPITAL
CCN 440001 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
50
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health6/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility8/15
Operational Efficiency2/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-3.5%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -4.9%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-31.8%, 24.8%]. P53 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Log(Beds) | 2.079 | -0.0533 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.006 | +0.0291 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.114 | +0.0252 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.165 | -0.0228 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 8.000 | +0.0220 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 44%Turnaround possible (44%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Log(Beds).
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
40.4%
Distress Risk
$833K
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
1.7%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P45. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
TN distress rate: 43.2%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.729 | -0.189 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.165 | -0.091 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.035 | -0.054 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 8.000 | -0.019 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.276 | -0.009 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1581930.000 | -0.000 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $833K
Current margin: -4.9%
Projected margin: 1.7%
Grade: C
Comps: 383
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.165 | 0.728 | 56.3% | $833K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 34.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P77 | Average — predicted days in ar is near the median. |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 98.8% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P3 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |