ML Analysis — ENCOMPASS HEALTH REHABILITATION HOSP
CCN 433027 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
48
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health9/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position10/20
Demand Defensibility6/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-0.9%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -4.6%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-29.2%, 27.4%]. P60 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 446212.025 | -0.1582 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 466594.350 | +0.1467 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.135 | +0.0191 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Occupancy × Net-to-Gross | 0.438 | +0.0188 | Higher Occupancy × Net-to-Gross increases predicte | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.526 | +0.0177 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 48%Turnaround possible (48%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
45.5%
Distress Risk
$2.6M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
9.9%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P95. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
SD distress rate: 44.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.832 | -0.285 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.526 | +0.070 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 446212.025 | +0.067 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.711 | +0.066 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.032 | -0.057 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 40.000 | -0.015 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $2.6M
Current margin: -4.6%
Projected margin: 9.9%
Grade: A
Comps: 37
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.257 | 0.424 | 16.7% | $2.5M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.526 | 0.562 | 3.6% | $75K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 26.7 | [25.0, 75.0] | P38 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |