ML Analysis — AVERA DELLS AREA HOSPITAL
CCN 431331 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
41
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health15/25
RCM Upside6/25
Market Position9/20
Demand Defensibility2/15
Operational Efficiency9/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-7.1%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 14.7%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-35.4%, 21.2%]. P44 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 451757.304 | +0.1485 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 529568.217 | -0.1465 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.135 | -0.0288 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.102 | +0.0287 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 47437.201 | -0.0274 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
62.5%
Distress Risk
$5.2M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
57.4%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P88. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
SD distress rate: 44.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.090 | +0.404 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.570 | +0.090 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.004 | -0.085 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.818 | +0.084 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 529568.217 | +0.062 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 23.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $5.2M
Current margin: 14.7%
Projected margin: 57.4%
Grade: A
Comps: 41
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.178 | 0.378 | 20.0% | $3.0M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.090 | 0.411 | 32.1% | $2.1M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.570 | 0.627 | 5.7% | $81K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 30.9 | [25.0, 75.0] | P64 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |