ML Analysis — PHILIP HEALTH SERVICES INC
CCN 431319 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
44
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health10/25
RCM Upside14/25
Market Position10/20
Demand Defensibility4/15
Operational Efficiency5/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
0.5%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 1.9%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-27.8%, 28.8%]. P63 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 957668.944 | +0.0862 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 976336.333 | -0.0842 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.723 | +0.0398 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 2.890 | -0.0345 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.091 | +0.0319 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m |
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
54.6%
Distress Risk
$3.4M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
21.1%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P84. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
SD distress rate: 44.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.723 | +0.158 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.868 | +0.093 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.006 | -0.083 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 976336.333 | +0.036 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.500 | +0.023 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 18.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $3.4M
Current margin: 1.9%
Projected margin: 21.1%
Grade: A
Comps: 40
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.125 | 0.351 | 22.5% | $3.4M | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 29.6 | [25.0, 75.0] | P56 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |