ML Analysis — SIOUX FALLS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL
CCN 430090 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
48
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health19/25
RCM Upside5/25
Market Position9/20
Demand Defensibility2/15
Operational Efficiency13/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
14.1%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 31.7%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-14.1%, 42.4%]. P88 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 4207266.303 | +0.3668 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 2874198.152 | -0.1499 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.061 | +0.0404 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Occupancy | 0.106 | -0.0238 | Lower Occupancy decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.497 | -0.0204 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin |
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
54.0%
Distress Risk
$9.8M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
38.8%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P99. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
SD distress rate: 44.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.106 | +0.389 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 4207266.303 | -0.155 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.765 | +0.075 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.021 | -0.068 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.286 | -0.037 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 33.000 | -0.015 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $9.8M
Current margin: 31.7%
Projected margin: 38.8%
Grade: C
Comps: 39
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.286 | 0.570 | 28.4% | $4.6M | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.214 | 0.419 | 20.5% | $3.1M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.106 | 0.430 | 32.4% | $2.1M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 30.8 | [25.0, 75.0] | P63 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |