ML Analysis — BROOKINGS HEALTH SYSTEM
CCN 430008 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
51
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health10/25
RCM Upside13/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility7/15
Operational Efficiency7/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-5.5%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 4.5%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-33.8%, 22.9%]. P48 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bed Count | 49.000 | +0.0156 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin | |
| Occupancy | 0.266 | -0.0147 | Lower Occupancy decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 429236.907 | -0.0147 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Expense/Bed | 1542066.020 | +0.0142 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.477 | +0.0122 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin |
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
56.1%
Distress Risk
$1.5M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
6.3%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P38. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
SD distress rate: 44.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.266 | +0.241 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.478 | +0.049 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.058 | -0.031 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.495 | +0.029 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 49.000 | -0.013 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1614490.449 | -0.002 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $1.5M
Current margin: 4.5%
Projected margin: 6.3%
Grade: D
Comps: 31
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.266 | 0.410 | 14.4% | $948K | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.478 | 0.533 | 5.6% | $518K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 27.3 | [25.0, 75.0] | P40 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |