ML Analysis — WILLIAMSBURG REGIONAL HOSPITAL
CCN 421303 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
52
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health5/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position16/20
Demand Defensibility8/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-6.9%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -13.7%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-35.2%, 21.4%]. P44 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 899430.480 | -0.0949 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1022935.960 | +0.0781 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | 0.013 | +0.0432 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.219 | -0.0268 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 25.000 | +0.0193 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 38%Turnaround possible (38%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
53.2%
Distress Risk
$5.7M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
11.6%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P52. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
SC distress rate: 34.1%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.371 | +0.143 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 899430.480 | +0.040 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.051 | -0.038 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 25.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.417 | +0.015 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.390 | +0.010 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $5.7M
Current margin: -13.7%
Projected margin: 11.6%
Grade: A
Comps: 31
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.371 | 0.781 | 41.0% | $2.7M | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.532 | 0.695 | 16.3% | $2.4M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.390 | 0.600 | 20.9% | $551K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 31.3 | [25.0, 75.0] | P66 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |