ML Analysis — HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO
CCN 400018 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
50
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health5/25
RCM Upside18/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility8/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-12.8%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -3.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-41.1%, 15.5%]. P31 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 713939.450 | -0.1208 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 735716.597 | +0.1135 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.446 | -0.0702 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.854 | +0.0545 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| Medicaid % | 0.372 | -0.0342 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 29%Low turnaround probability (29%). Structural disadvantages in Revenue/Bed and Expense/Bed.
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
60.3%
Distress Risk
$3.6M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
0.9%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P0. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
PR distress rate: 55.2%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.372 | +0.283 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.854 | +0.216 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.593 | -0.063 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 713939.450 | +0.051 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.107 | -0.038 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 129.000 | -0.003 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $3.6M
Current margin: -3.0%
Projected margin: 0.9%
Grade: D
Comps: 39
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.521 | 0.693 | 17.2% | $2.6M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.593 | 0.750 | 15.7% | $1.0M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |