ML Analysis — EAST END BEHAVIORAL HEALTH HOSPITAL
CCN 394054 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
41
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health4/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position8/20
Demand Defensibility6/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-11.7%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -36.1%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-40.0%, 16.6%]. P34 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 211035.510 | -0.1910 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 287314.082 | +0.1688 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Medicaid % | 0.428 | -0.0410 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 146527.200 | -0.0241 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Bed Count | 49.000 | +0.0156 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 30%Turnaround possible (30%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
56.0%
Distress Risk
$5.5M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
17.1%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P26. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
PA distress rate: 48.1%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.428 | +0.338 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.694 | -0.157 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 211035.510 | +0.081 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.462 | +0.041 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.187 | -0.024 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 49.000 | -0.013 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $5.5M
Current margin: -36.1%
Projected margin: 17.1%
Grade: A
Comps: 86
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.385 | 0.734 | 34.9% | $5.2M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.694 | 0.735 | 4.0% | $266K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 30.3 | [25.0, 75.0] | P60 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |