ML Analysis — GOOD SHEPHERD PENN PARTNERS
CCN 392050 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
50
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health4/25
RCM Upside21/25
Market Position9/20
Demand Defensibility10/15
Operational Efficiency6/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-29.5%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -50.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-57.9%, -1.2%]. P13 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 6563814.611 | -0.6044 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 3673153.389 | +0.2923 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 2986603.562 | +0.0701 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m | |
| Log(Beds) | 2.890 | -0.0345 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.107 | +0.0270 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m |
Turnaround: 11%Low turnaround probability (11%). Structural disadvantages in Expense/Bed and Revenue/Bed.
Under-Performing / Distre
Archetype
37.3%
Distress Risk
$4.3M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
-43.5%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Under-Performing / Distressed
Percentile within cluster: P96. Deeply negative margins signal severe distress. Evaluate asset-level acquisition at 4-6x normalized EBITDA.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| HOLY FAMILY MEMORIAL INC | WI | 58 |
| MIDDLESBORO ARH | KY | 46 |
| ATRIUM HEALTH NAVICENT BALDWIN | GA | 86 |
| BON SECOURS COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | NY | 98 |
| ADVANCED SPECIALTY HOSP. OF TOLEDO | OH | 40 |
| COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTER BRANCH | MI | 75 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
PA distress rate: 48.1%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.813 | -0.267 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 3673153.389 | -0.124 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.191 | -0.079 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 18.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.077 | -0.012 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.360 | +0.006 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.3M
Current margin: -50.0%
Projected margin: -43.5%
Grade: C
Comps: 40
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.563 | 0.760 | 19.7% | $2.9M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.191 | 0.364 | 17.3% | $1.3M | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 37.2 | [25.0, 75.0] | P80 | Average — predicted days in ar is near the median. |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 98.0% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P1 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |