ML Analysis — SSH - JOHNSTOWN INC.
CCN 392031 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
42
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health15/25
RCM Upside7/25
Market Position8/20
Demand Defensibility7/15
Operational Efficiency5/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-6.3%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 13.9%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-34.6%, 22.0%]. P46 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 408649.180 | -0.1634 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 351795.795 | +0.1608 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.064 | +0.0394 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.140 | -0.0257 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 260088.624 | -0.0203 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
nan%
Distress Risk
$4.8M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
44.3%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
PA distress rate: 48.1%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.636 | -0.103 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.538 | +0.036 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.140 | -0.102 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 408649.179 | +0.069 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 39.000 | -0.015 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.8M
Current margin: 13.9%
Projected margin: 44.3%
Grade: A
Comps: 80
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.462 | 0.722 | 26.0% | $3.9M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.140 | 0.448 | 30.9% | $576K | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.636 | 0.691 | 5.4% | $357K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |