ML Analysis — LVH-COORDINATED ALLENTOWN
CCN 390321 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
51
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health9/25
RCM Upside14/25
Market Position13/20
Demand Defensibility6/15
Operational Efficiency9/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-4.0%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 2.3%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-32.3%, 24.3%]. P52 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 4480917.300 | +0.4050 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 4377505.250 | -0.3351 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 2.996 | -0.0320 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Occupancy | 0.115 | -0.0233 | Lower Occupancy decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 20.000 | +0.0201 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
51.1%
Distress Risk
$5.2M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
8.1%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P89. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
PA distress rate: 48.1%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.115 | +0.381 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 4480917.300 | -0.171 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.002 | -0.087 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.276 | -0.041 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 20.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.358 | +0.005 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $5.2M
Current margin: 2.3%
Projected margin: 8.1%
Grade: D
Comps: 46
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.115 | 0.530 | 41.6% | $2.7M | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.639 | 0.748 | 10.8% | $1.6M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.276 | 0.356 | 8.1% | $844K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 32.8 | [25.0, 75.0] | P73 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |