ML Analysis — BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT
CCN 381305 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
45
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health3/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position14/20
Demand Defensibility3/15
Operational Efficiency6/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-11.9%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -9.5%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-40.2%, 16.4%]. P33 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Log(Beds) | 2.773 | -0.0372 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.648 | +0.0313 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1907271.312 | -0.0308 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.081 | -0.0264 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1741874.375 | +0.0227 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 30%Turnaround possible (30%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Log(Beds).
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
56.7%
Distress Risk
$5.0M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
8.6%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P0. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
| ASCENSION ST THOMAS THREE RIVERS | TN | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
OR distress rate: 65.0%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.275 | +0.232 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.648 | +0.124 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.009 | -0.079 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.606 | +0.048 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 16.000 | -0.018 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1741874.375 | -0.010 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $5.0M
Current margin: -9.5%
Projected margin: 8.6%
Grade: A
Comps: 23
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.385 | 0.595 | 21.0% | $3.2M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.275 | 0.560 | 28.5% | $1.9M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 31.1 | [25.0, 75.0] | P64 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |