ML Analysis — SAINT ALPHONSUS MEDICAL CENTER - ONT
CCN 380052 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
50
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health2/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position13/20
Demand Defensibility7/15
Operational Efficiency8/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-12.7%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -7.4%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-41.0%, 15.6%]. P32 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 2188170.714 | -0.0654 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 2036737.943 | +0.0639 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.081 | -0.0264 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Medicaid % | 0.290 | -0.0243 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.135 | +0.0191 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m |
Turnaround: 29%Low turnaround probability (29%). Structural disadvantages in Expense/Bed and Revenue/Bed.
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
58.0%
Distress Risk
$9.4M
RCM Opportunity
B
Opportunity Grade
5.7%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P56. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
OR distress rate: 65.0%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.290 | +0.201 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.332 | +0.180 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2036737.943 | -0.027 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 35.000 | -0.015 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.384 | +0.007 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.359 | +0.005 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $9.4M
Current margin: -7.4%
Projected margin: 5.7%
Grade: B
Comps: 27
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.352 | 0.731 | 37.9% | $5.7M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.332 | 0.626 | 29.5% | $1.9M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.384 | 0.592 | 20.8% | $1.7M | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 31.2 | [25.0, 75.0] | P65 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |