ML Analysis — SKY LAKES MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 380050 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
59
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health8/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position13/20
Demand Defensibility12/15
Operational Efficiency6/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-8.4%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -20.9%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-36.7%, 19.9%]. P41 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 3378396.344 | -0.2120 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 2793418.033 | +0.1695 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 1933113.308 | +0.0352 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.081 | -0.0264 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.115 | +0.0248 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m |
Turnaround: 36%Turnaround possible (36%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Expense/Bed.
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
47.7%
Distress Risk
$8.3M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-17.6%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P58. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
OR distress rate: 65.0%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.272 | +0.183 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.692 | -0.155 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2793418.033 | -0.072 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.320 | -0.022 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 90.000 | -0.008 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.367 | +0.007 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $8.3M
Current margin: -20.9%
Projected margin: -17.6%
Grade: D
Comps: 17
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.361 | 0.772 | 41.1% | $6.2M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.320 | 0.385 | 6.6% | $1.9M | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.692 | 0.717 | 2.5% | $166K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 28.2 | [25.0, 75.0] | P45 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |