ML Analysis — TULSA CENTER FOR BEHAVIORAL HEALTH
CCN 374026 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
38
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health3/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position7/20
Demand Defensibility8/15
Operational Efficiency0/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-19.9%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -50.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-48.2%, 8.4%]. P21 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 36298.357 | -0.2154 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 283130.946 | +0.1693 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Medicaid % | 0.590 | -0.0606 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.057 | +0.0416 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.088 | -0.0313 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 20%Low turnaround probability (20%). Structural disadvantages in Revenue/Bed and Expense/Bed.
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
53.5%
Distress Risk
$2.4M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
67.3%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P86. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
OK distress rate: 58.1%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.590 | +0.501 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.837 | -0.290 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 36298.357 | +0.091 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.181 | -0.084 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.094 | -0.040 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 56.000 | -0.012 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $2.4M
Current margin: -50.0%
Projected margin: 67.3%
Grade: A
Comps: 61
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.316 | 0.472 | 15.6% | $2.3M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.181 | 0.353 | 17.2% | $41K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 38.2 | [25.0, 75.0] | P81 | Average — predicted days in ar is near the median. |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 97.8% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P0 | Average — predicted net collection rate is near the median. |