ML Analysis — OAKWOOD SPRINGS
CCN 374025 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
48
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health3/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility8/15
Operational Efficiency2/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-13.4%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -8.9%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-41.7%, 14.9%]. P30 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 231274.597 | -0.1882 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 251861.500 | +0.1731 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.088 | -0.0313 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 166767.641 | -0.0234 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Medicaid % | 0.275 | -0.0225 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 28%Low turnaround probability (28%). Structural disadvantages in Revenue/Bed and Expense/Bed.
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
49.2%
Distress Risk
$151K
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-8.0%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P21. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
OK distress rate: 58.1%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.274 | +0.185 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.721 | -0.182 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 231274.597 | +0.080 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.277 | -0.041 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.120 | -0.035 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 72.000 | -0.010 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $151K
Current margin: -8.9%
Projected margin: -8.0%
Grade: D
Comps: 60
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.277 | 0.355 | 7.8% | $151K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 27.4 | [25.0, 75.0] | P40 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |