ML Analysis — CARL ALBERT COMMUNITY MENTAL HEALTH
CCN 374006 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
42
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health3/25
RCM Upside21/25
Market Position13/20
Demand Defensibility6/15
Operational Efficiency0/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-29.3%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -50.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-57.6%, -1.0%]. P13 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 259756.750 | -0.1842 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Medicaid % | 0.555 | -0.0564 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1229311.562 | +0.0527 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.058 | +0.0414 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Log(Beds) | 2.773 | -0.0372 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 11%Low turnaround probability (11%). Structural disadvantages in Revenue/Bed and Medicaid %.
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
51.1%
Distress Risk
$1.6M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
-10.7%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P84. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
OK distress rate: 58.1%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.555 | +0.466 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.887 | -0.336 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.178 | -0.085 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 259756.750 | +0.078 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.121 | -0.035 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 16.000 | -0.018 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $1.6M
Current margin: -50.0%
Projected margin: -10.7%
Grade: A
Comps: 57
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.324 | 0.420 | 9.6% | $1.4M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.178 | 0.574 | 39.6% | $193K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 41.5 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Average — predicted days in ar is near the median. |
| Clean Claim Rate | 96.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 96.9% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P0 | Average — predicted net collection rate is near the median. |