ML Analysis — MERCY REHAB HOSPITAL OKLAHOMA CITY S
CCN 373036 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
40
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health12/25
RCM Upside10/25
Market Position6/20
Demand Defensibility5/15
Operational Efficiency7/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-6.9%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 8.1%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-35.2%, 21.4%]. P44 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 348574.333 | -0.1718 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 320444.139 | +0.1647 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.691 | +0.0362 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.088 | -0.0313 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 187338.808 | -0.0227 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
53.8%
Distress Risk
$2.7M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
29.4%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P76. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
OK distress rate: 58.1%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.691 | +0.144 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.013 | -0.076 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 348574.333 | +0.073 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.715 | +0.067 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 36.000 | -0.015 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.537 | -0.011 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $2.7M
Current margin: 8.1%
Projected margin: 29.4%
Grade: A
Comps: 90
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.272 | 0.444 | 17.2% | $2.6M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.537 | 0.552 | 1.4% | $95K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 26.3 | [25.0, 75.0] | P36 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |