ML Analysis — MERCY REHAB HOSPITAL OKLAHOMA CITY
CCN 373033 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
45
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health16/25
RCM Upside5/25
Market Position7/20
Demand Defensibility8/15
Operational Efficiency9/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-4.3%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 28.5%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-32.6%, 24.0%]. P51 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 309357.318 | +0.1660 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 432460.227 | -0.1601 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.661 | +0.0328 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.088 | -0.0313 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 287498.985 | -0.0194 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
50.1%
Distress Risk
$1.7M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
34.4%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P92. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
OK distress rate: 58.1%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.661 | +0.130 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.665 | -0.130 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.008 | -0.081 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 432460.227 | +0.068 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.644 | +0.054 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 66.000 | -0.011 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $1.7M
Current margin: 28.5%
Projected margin: 34.4%
Grade: D
Comps: 64
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.347 | 0.455 | 10.8% | $1.6M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.665 | 0.675 | 1.1% | $70K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |