ML Analysis — MUSCOGEE CREEK NATION LONG TERM CARE
CCN 372023 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
46
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health15/25
RCM Upside7/25
Market Position8/20
Demand Defensibility6/15
Operational Efficiency9/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-8.9%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 12.3%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-37.2%, 19.4%]. P40 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 785847.333 | +0.1073 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Medicaid % | 0.926 | -0.1013 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 895777.667 | -0.0954 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 1.792 | -0.0600 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.023 | +0.0513 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m |
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
62.7%
Distress Risk
$8.5M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
170.1%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P99. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
OK distress rate: 58.1%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.926 | +0.837 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.972 | -0.415 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.711 | +0.152 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.041 | -0.049 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 895777.667 | +0.040 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 6.000 | -0.019 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $8.5M
Current margin: 12.3%
Projected margin: 170.1%
Grade: A
Comps: 114
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.032 | 0.598 | 56.5% | $8.5M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.711 | 0.715 | 0.4% | $3K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 34.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P77 | Average — predicted days in ar is near the median. |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 98.9% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P3 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |