ML Analysis — POST ACUTE MEDICAL TULSA
CCN 372018 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
40
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health15/25
RCM Upside7/25
Market Position6/20
Demand Defensibility7/15
Operational Efficiency5/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-9.8%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 11.1%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-38.1%, 18.5%]. P38 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 392485.783 | -0.1657 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 349019.633 | +0.1612 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.052 | +0.0430 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.088 | -0.0313 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 226530.607 | -0.0214 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
48.8%
Distress Risk
$4.2M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
28.9%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P83. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
OK distress rate: 58.1%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.203 | -0.074 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 392485.783 | +0.070 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.673 | +0.059 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.577 | -0.048 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.072 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 60.000 | -0.012 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.2M
Current margin: 11.1%
Projected margin: 28.9%
Grade: A
Comps: 66
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.255 | 0.465 | 20.9% | $3.1M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.577 | 0.673 | 9.5% | $630K | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.203 | 0.358 | 15.5% | $427K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 29.2 | [25.0, 75.0] | P52 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |