ML Analysis — MEMORIAL HOSPITAL OF TEXAS COUNTY
CCN 371340 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
46
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health4/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position13/20
Demand Defensibility4/15
Operational Efficiency6/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-20.8%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -49.4%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-49.1%, 7.5%]. P20 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 2623406.500 | -0.1190 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 1.792 | -0.0600 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.088 | -0.0313 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.110 | +0.0263 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1756219.000 | +0.0247 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 19%Low turnaround probability (19%). Structural disadvantages in Expense/Bed and Log(Beds).
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
49.6%
Distress Risk
$4.7M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
-4.6%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P94. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
OK distress rate: 58.1%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.637 | +0.053 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.049 | -0.039 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.489 | +0.033 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 6.000 | -0.019 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1756219.000 | -0.010 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.351 | -0.008 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.7M
Current margin: -49.4%
Projected margin: -4.6%
Grade: A
Comps: 114
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.313 | 0.598 | 28.4% | $4.3M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.351 | 0.715 | 36.4% | $449K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 39.5 | [25.0, 75.0] | P82 | Average — predicted days in ar is near the median. |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 97.8% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P0 | Average — predicted net collection rate is near the median. |