ML Analysis — CORDELL MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
CCN 371325 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
38
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health2/25
RCM Upside18/25
Market Position12/20
Demand Defensibility2/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-16.7%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -19.6%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-45.0%, 11.6%]. P25 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 420962.929 | -0.1617 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 503658.929 | +0.1421 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 2.639 | -0.0403 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.088 | -0.0313 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 60219.941 | -0.0270 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
Turnaround: 24%Low turnaround probability (24%). Structural disadvantages in Revenue/Bed and Expense/Bed.
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
61.6%
Distress Risk
$4.7M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
60.7%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P32. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
OK distress rate: 58.1%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.143 | +0.355 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 420962.929 | +0.068 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.648 | +0.055 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.447 | +0.035 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 14.000 | -0.018 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.092 | +0.003 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.7M
Current margin: -19.6%
Projected margin: 60.7%
Grade: A
Comps: 53
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.143 | 0.532 | 38.9% | $2.6M | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.260 | 0.398 | 13.9% | $2.1M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.447 | 0.576 | 12.9% | $89K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 35.7 | [25.0, 75.0] | P79 | Average — predicted days in ar is near the median. |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.1% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P4 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |